MS Gill - Be our Sports Minister, not Cricket Minister

Dear Mr. Gill.,

A few years back, you retired as Cheif Election Commissioner of India (CEC). Having reached that post, i hope that i can deduct that you are good in beauracratic activities. Lesson 101 of beauracracy states that you need to identify the boundaries of your role. 

Saina Nehwal reached heights that no Indian has ever reached. She became the first Indian to win a Super Series Badminton tournament. And i see no congratulation statement from you when you took time to praise Pakistan's T20 World Championship victory. 

Pray, Mr. Minister - Can you stop being India's Minister for Cricket Affairs and become India's minister for Sports & Youth Affairs. (and practice what you preach to others - Encourage sports other than cricket)

And by the way, i find it an insult that Saina received a cash prize of Rs 200,000 when each member of the 2007 T20 Championship victory earned Rs. 8,000,000 (apart from Porsche & Mercedes Benz cars), that's 120,000,000 for the 15 member squad - apparently, Cricket is worth 600 times more than Badminton in India.

Will the Minister take some action

Your's Sincerly

A True Sports Fan

No country for young men ...

31% of Indian population is below 15 years. Another 30% is below 40 years. While the representation of the former is not expected in the Union Cabinet, the lack of representation of the latter is really surprising. After the hundreds of hours spent by media and Congress leaders talking about youth, there isn't a single representative below 40 in the list of Cabinet ministers announced on 22nd May. In fact, there isn't one below 50!

• Gang of 70s: 77 - SM Krishna, 76 - Manmohan Singh, 74 - BK Handique, 73 - Pranab Mukherjee, 72 - Murli Deora, 71 - Vayalar Ravi
  
• Early retirees (60s): 69 - Veerappa Moily, 68 - Sharad Pawar, AK Anthony, 67 - Jaipal Reddy, Sushilkumar Shinde, 65 - Ambika Soni, 64 - P Chidambaram, Meira Kumar, 62 - Kamal Nath, 60 - Ghulam Nabi Azad, Kapil Sibal
  
• "Young Blood" (50s): 58 - CP Joshi, 56 - Anand Sharma, 54 - Mamta Banerjee
  

That's a grand total of 3 folks below 60; 11 in the 60s and 6 in the 70s. Congress really needs to search and understand the meaning of youth in the dictionary. 

Another interesting analysis reveals the ministry by states and the actual no. of seats received by Congress in these states (LS only): AP - 1 of 33; Assam - 1 of 7; Bihar - 1 of 2; Delhi - 1 of 7; Karnataka - 1 of 6; MP - 1 of 12; Rajasthan - 1 of 20; Tamil Nadu - 1 of 8; WB - 1 of 6. Rest - 0 of 106 including UP (21), Maharastra (17), Kerala (13) and Gujarat (11). In fact, of the 18 Congress ministers (incl PM), 9 come from Rajya Sabha and were not elected by the people in the recent polls. Dr. Singh, Deora, V Ravi, Anthony, Shinde, Soni, Azad, Anand Sharma and Krishna. 

So, can the Congress stop harping about "Youth" and "People's mandate". Political parties have very little respect with the general public because of deceptions like this.

The real analysis on Indian Elections 2009

The TV talking heads have cooled off a bit on their instant analysis of Elections 2009. Several winners were announced by the TV heads and several losers. I intend to spend some time over the next month to analyze if the TV folks got it right or wrong.

But, one person whom they got it all wrong was Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar, and God knows how much i like him, didn't lead the NDA in Bihar because of good governance. He swept Bihar because of the split between Congress(I) and RJD. I analyzed the results of each of the 40 seats and this the summary table:

So, if you see this simple analysis - INC & RJD are losers because the monkey ate the cake while the cats fought over it. Even when you take only 80% of translation of INC votes to the RJD combine, the results is at least 2.5 times better than today. There's a lesson for Congress in this result table. Ignore Laloo if you want to write-off any chance of becoming big in Bihar.

Another trend that i noticed and that isn't obvious here, is the fact that BSP is nearing the 50,000 votes in 9 constituencies. That should worry the Congree, RJD and LJP.

In short, what do i recommend for the Congress in Bihar? I ask them to give Laloo a chance of joining Congress and becoming it's party chief in Bihar as well a cabinet minister in the current government. And why shouldn't that happen? Ideology-wise, there isn't a lot that seperates the Congress and RJD and Congress needs to spend more than a decade to become relevant again in Bihar. The easier route is to leverage the current result and add weight in states where it isn't strong. Also, inviting RJD to merge with Congress will also result in reverse-regionalization of political parties. Post-Congress, NCP and SP are the other candidates that will see a clear writing on the wall and they might want to join the re-join Congress. The public has clearly given it's mandate - national parties over regional parties and Congress has the golden opportunity of using this leverage. My sincere advise to Sonia & team - ask Laloo to join Congress before the feel-good feeling from election success evaporates! You won't regret taking my advise.

2 stars of Indian Politics in their own rights

We are 15-16 days away from a new Parliament term & maybe a new Prime Minister as well. While there are a hundred aspirants to the throne, including the 2 that i am going to write about, only a handful have the credentials to get there. Of the folks who don't make the cut with me - 

• Deva Gowda (fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on ME!)
• Jayalalitha (nope amma, your good English skills & mediocre Hindi skills don't hide your narrow thought process)
• Mayawati (She is Jayalalitha Ver 0.0.1)
  
• Prakash Karat (No, Thanks. I don't want to live in the 19th century!)
• Sonia Gandhi (too much baggage Ma'am - You fled to Italy during the 1971 Indo-Pak War & your procastination in getting Indian Citizenship till your Cabinet Minister husband are 2 reasons why you should never be India's PM & not your foreign birth!)
• Sharad Pawar (What, he wants both ICC Presidency as well India's PM post!)
• PA Sangma (what! If your abilities as Lok Sabha Speaker are any good measure, the country will be in chaos during your term!)

On to the 2 gentlemen that i wanted to highlight today. Not because, they are my choice for Prime Minister but because they have skills in certain areas that are much needed. No one could predict that Laloo Yadav will revolutionize Indian Railways. I believe that the same will happen if these 2 folks get anywhere close to the PM Chair. 

Drum rolls, for Person 1 - Narendra Modi ...

Let me make the case for Modi. Have anyone see the way Gujarat has jumped up the charts in economy & Human Development Index in spite of the continued marginalization of the Muslims. Do you see how respected Industry leaders sing his praises? Do you see the amazing amount of passion in him to lead his state? Do you see the dwindling rural-urban divide in Gujarat where rural development has been given as much importance as urban growth? Sentiments & party membership aside, does India have any leader who has Modi's "Ready-in-2-minutes-PM" candidature?

Now, for the negatives - his non-apology for post-Godhra riots. I have 2 issues with Modi on this attitude - Marginalization of minorities always leads to radicalization of society and is the first step for downfall of any civilization. For the last 7 years, Muslims have been using 2002 riots as the excuse for nearly every terrorist attack in India. Modi's attitude towards Muslims needs radical shift. While Modi will never fall in love with Muslims, at the very least he needs to show genuine concern for Muslim & other minorities. Else, he is no different than the narrow-minded Mayawati to me. The second issue with Modi on the Godhra incident is that his non-apology has made folks focus on post-Godhra riots and there has been next-to-zero empathy for the victims of the train attacks. Had Modi succeded in avoiding post-Godhra riots, the focus over the last 7 years would have been on the radicalization of Muslims and their inability to join the mainstream. That could have bought shame to right-wing Muslims thereby reducing their numbers. Modi, you did a major dis-service to the nation by not taking action post-Godhra attacks. 

The second person that i want to highlight is Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Laugh all you want, but i would take MSY anyday above some of the other leaders in view. His anti-English & anti-computer stance are meaningless populism measures that he himself will abandon post 2009 elections. I recall a Shekar Gupta story on the Sukhoi-30 defense deal. Mulayam worked together with Vajapayee, Jaswant Singh & finished a deal that was started by PV Narasimha Rao & Manmohan Singh. Reason? The deal was good for India. That's the bottom-line. Politics was left outside the door when it came to our strategic interest. Second example, Mulayam Singh was the key reason why the Indo-US Nuclear deal was signed. The UPA goverment was in shambles after the Left Front abandoned them & when APJ Abdul Kalam called Mulayam Singh for a meeting & provided his support for the deal, Mulayam agreed to prop the UPA government. In effect, the anti-US SP provided support to the nuclear deal rather than the pro-US BJP.While some can contend that Mulayam's support was opportunistic (and it might well be the case!), we should acknowledge the fact that Mulayam put India's interest before his own interest. And by the way, Mulayam was all for giving APJ Abdul Kalam a second term as President. In fact, Mulayam was one of the early proponents for Abdul Kalam as India's President in the first place in 2002.

The case against Mulayam has been well documented. His pro-Muslim lean along with anti-Hindu stance is the mirror image of Modi's stance. 

The nation will be well-served if we had a 50:50 mix of Modi & Mulayam.

Karunanidhi & fasting ...

So, we have all heard about Karunanidhi's dramatic attempt at indefinitive fasting in Chennai today which started after breakfast and ended before lunch. 

What a noble attempt. Right? Karunanidhi's action speaks for itself

• 19 July 2008: Karunanidhi doesn't go on fast but senior leaders of his party do. Reason - Protest killing of fishermen by Sri Lankan foreces
  
• 1 October 2007: Karunanidhi goes on indefinite fast protesting the dealys in the Sethusamudram project. 
  
• December 2003: Karunanidhi ends fast within minutes of starting one protesting the arrest of partyman.
  
• 2002: Karunanidhi goes on fast protesting attacks on his MLA office in Chennai. 
  
• June 2001: Karunanidhi goes on fast protesting his arrest by the Jayalalitha regime

You make your own judgement. Is Karunanidhi today's version of Mahatma Gandhi or is he a selfish politician?

My vote is for sale - Part 2

It was quite a coincidence that i wrote a blog & the BJP manifesto (asking for "Swiss black money" to be returned) was released. Let's see if there is any other political party that answers the questions in this blog.

Issue #2: My vote is for the party that will flight "shadow black money system". 

Chidambaram came up with a fantastic idea in 1997 - VDIS'97 - Voluntary Disclosure of Income Scheme where unaccounted income could be disclosed & with tax paid on the same, the money would be regularized. If my memory doesn't fail - there was huge publicity and the ads were displayed on TV during Sharjah series cricket matches as well. The end result - the government netted Rs. 10,000 crores on "black assets" of 33,000 crores. The highest  payment came from Andhra Pradesh when a gentleman declared black assets of 500+ crores and paid 170 crores. Phew!

I think the time for VDIS II has come. With the real estate boom & the criminalization of politics, it is time for the government to remove black money from the system - estimated at 18 to 20% of GDP ($210 to 234 billion). Thus, putting together the offshore loot & local black money - it's an astounding $1.5 trillion! And to see no politican speak of it ...

.. isn't a surprise. Most politicans are the beneficieries of this ill-gotten wealth. Let me take one example of a recent addition to the political environment. Actor Chiranjeevi -my favorite Telugu actor & the star of Andhra Pradesh. 

Chiranjeevi filed his nomination papers for Tirupati MLA seat on 4th April 2009. As part of his papers, he declared assets worth Rs. 88 crores in the name of his wife & himself. No information on assets belonging to his children were released. That seems normal for a film icon whose 30 years in film world has produced more hits than one can count. However, one particular detail caught my attention. Chiranjeevi declared owning a site in Mount Road, Chennai  measuring 4,092 sq. yards (36,828 sq feet or 15.345 "grounds" @ ground = 2400 sq ft) worth Rs. 2.046 crores.

The calculation works to Rs 13.33 lakhs per ground for the property! That's a joke. We don't get property for Rs. 13 lakhs, 50 kms outside Chennai forget at the heart of the city. The actual value of the site is worth at least 25 to 50 times the declared rate at the least (Rs. 50 to 75 crores). Assuming the same kind of under-declaration, Chiranjeevi & his wife would be worth at least 300 to 400 crores if not more. And Chiranjeevi is contesting as a champion of middle-class! What travesty!

I am not singling out my movie-idol Chiranjeevi, but this is the trend amongst all politicians in India. 

The single largest source of black money in India is in these land-holdings. Let me explain how black money is created & funded. Assume Chiranjeevi wants to sell the land. The government guideline value might be Rs. 4 crores for the 4092 sq. yd land (i have no info on the guideline value in Mount Road). The seller buys stamp paper (11% of sale value - Rs. 44 lakhs) for Rs. 4 crores but the actual sale price might be Rs. 40 crores (assumption). In this case, Rs. 36 crores of black money is either created or routed. The government is also a loser - instead of receiving Rs. 4.4 crores as stamp duty, it receives Rs. 40 lakhs. The modus operandi of Indian politician at it's shameful worst!

our politician's backward thinking!

Nothing represent India as a society that the current political action to restrict central govt funded institutes' admission to last year numbers. Check here and here.

Let me interpret the message the central government is sending:

• To further their political cause, the government forced the institutes to increase capacity and thus ensured that the institutes added 10% capacity (12,000+ over 1.2 lac)
• The government puts the interest of 1.2 lac candidates aside to address 'concerns' of 12,000
• When the supreme court decided to strike down OBC reservation, the government has withdrawn these 12,000 seats
• In case the May 8 judgement does not allow OBC reservations, i am 100% sure that the government is not going to use this to add more general quota or SC/ST quota students to these institutes.
• If the supreme court clearance takes time, the government will ask the institutes to freeze any capacity expansion

Thus the bottomline is, the government will let capacity go un-utilized or wasted but will ensure that the general public does not benefit. That's why they are probably called politicians ...!

May 8 is likely to be one of the saddest days for India as a nation ....

With respect to reservation - can the government reveal the number of OBC candidates according to their records who have been selected in the general quota for these 1.2 lac seats. Can the government also give a breakup of the location from which these OBC candidates hail from - rural/urban (ain't that simple - look at their hometown and 'rural' can be town/villages less than 50,000 population). Also, can the government provide stats of the number of rural and urban candidates from NE India? These are the more relevant categories that needs upliftment., not their vote banks ....