The real analysis on Indian Elections 2009

The TV talking heads have cooled off a bit on their instant analysis of Elections 2009. Several winners were announced by the TV heads and several losers. I intend to spend some time over the next month to analyze if the TV folks got it right or wrong.

But, one person whom they got it all wrong was Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar, and God knows how much i like him, didn't lead the NDA in Bihar because of good governance. He swept Bihar because of the split between Congress(I) and RJD. I analyzed the results of each of the 40 seats and this the summary table:

So, if you see this simple analysis - INC & RJD are losers because the monkey ate the cake while the cats fought over it. Even when you take only 80% of translation of INC votes to the RJD combine, the results is at least 2.5 times better than today. There's a lesson for Congress in this result table. Ignore Laloo if you want to write-off any chance of becoming big in Bihar.

Another trend that i noticed and that isn't obvious here, is the fact that BSP is nearing the 50,000 votes in 9 constituencies. That should worry the Congree, RJD and LJP.

In short, what do i recommend for the Congress in Bihar? I ask them to give Laloo a chance of joining Congress and becoming it's party chief in Bihar as well a cabinet minister in the current government. And why shouldn't that happen? Ideology-wise, there isn't a lot that seperates the Congress and RJD and Congress needs to spend more than a decade to become relevant again in Bihar. The easier route is to leverage the current result and add weight in states where it isn't strong. Also, inviting RJD to merge with Congress will also result in reverse-regionalization of political parties. Post-Congress, NCP and SP are the other candidates that will see a clear writing on the wall and they might want to join the re-join Congress. The public has clearly given it's mandate - national parties over regional parties and Congress has the golden opportunity of using this leverage. My sincere advise to Sonia & team - ask Laloo to join Congress before the feel-good feeling from election success evaporates! You won't regret taking my advise.

Karunanidhi & fasting ...

So, we have all heard about Karunanidhi's dramatic attempt at indefinitive fasting in Chennai today which started after breakfast and ended before lunch. 

What a noble attempt. Right? Karunanidhi's action speaks for itself

• 19 July 2008: Karunanidhi doesn't go on fast but senior leaders of his party do. Reason - Protest killing of fishermen by Sri Lankan foreces
  
• 1 October 2007: Karunanidhi goes on indefinite fast protesting the dealys in the Sethusamudram project. 
  
• December 2003: Karunanidhi ends fast within minutes of starting one protesting the arrest of partyman.
  
• 2002: Karunanidhi goes on fast protesting attacks on his MLA office in Chennai. 
  
• June 2001: Karunanidhi goes on fast protesting his arrest by the Jayalalitha regime

You make your own judgement. Is Karunanidhi today's version of Mahatma Gandhi or is he a selfish politician?

WTF Moment of the Day - Ram Temple & Secularism

Sonia Gandhi was in Mumbai & before she reached the rally venue, Ramdas Athavle uttered this WTF sentence:

"Only the UPA (Congress-led United Progressive Alliance) can build a Ram Mandir because we are secular.

I mean - what was that & where did that come from?

I was always under the impression that Secularism meant that Hindus donate away their temples to Muslims & Christians. I was under the impression that those pressing for building the Ram temple (BJP, Shiv Sena) are called communalists. As per your definition, BJP is the most secular party in India. Isn't it so?

If this wasn't the election season, i would have sympathized with this man believing that he was in the midst of suffering a heat stroke. Personally, i am tired of this chalta hai attitude of the public - Politicians can state whatever they want & get away before the elections. 

By the way, Mr. Athavle, did you know that this UPA government that you believe will build the Ram temple doesn't even believe Ram ever existed! That's what they told the Supreme Court of India in September 2007 before withdrawing it in the face of widespread protests & condemnation.

IMHO, Congress wants to have the cake & eat it too! They want both Hindus & Muslims to believe that their interests will be addressed only by Congress and that's why we get to hear these WTF statements.

My Vote is for Sale - 3

In 2008, we saw history created in United States, when they elected Barack Obama (47). In 2009, India will create history if we elect LK Advani (82) as the Oldest Prime Minister to take office. Manmohan Singh at 78 looks positively young!

I am amazed how developed economies can find fit leaders in their 40s & 50s to lead their countries while we find no such non-dynasty leaders. So, my vote is for the party that will bring a change in Indian politics. No more room for oldies who doze off in cabinet meetings. My vote is for the party that will limit the age of Ministers to 65 and limit the age of MPs to 70. 

That means, we will see 35 retirements from the 2004-09 Lok Sabha - the highest number of 70+ MPs that Indian Parliament has ever seen. Maybe half of them will be replaced by their kids, but i am hoping at least the other half to be new blood.

If my rules are followed, we won't see the 80s club - Bagun Sambrui (85), Jalappa (84), Kuppuswamy (83), LK Advani (82), Sis Ram Ola (82), Radhakrishnan Varkala (82), Lakshminarayan Pandey (81), Ripple Kyndiah (81), Bhanwar Singh Dangawas (80), AR Antulay (80), Kailash Joshi (80) and Venkatswamy (80).

The members of the 70s club won't be missed much either: Kalyan Singh (77), Ajit Singh (70), Subrata Bose (77), Deva Gowda (76), Pranab Mukherjee (74) amongst others.

Biggest theft in Indian History: How Western India has lost!

Care to guess the most valuable item in independent India?

Gold - Nope. Folks have tons (if not Kgs at home!)

Water - Getting close. But inspite of the perennial Cauvery, Krishna, Ganga water fights, it isn't Water.

Giving up?

The answer: MP seat. Yup. Do you disagree?

When the Lok Sabha was created, the founding fathers divided the kitty to states by their population representation assuming that each of these states will have near-equal status in various parameters like Growth, wealth, HDI etc. And why not? If the Gangetic & Indus plain was good for agriculture, the south had their own Godavari, Krishna & Cauvery basins. States that lacked good agricultural area had natural resources wealth - Jharkhand, Orissa, Rajasthan.  However, the last 20 years has shown how there is a huge North-South divide in terms of revenue generation. So, i wonder - why should we still use population as the only criteria for allocating MP seats. Why not use more progressive elements as well - GDP & HDI came to my mind.

So, i did a quick calculation. Let me not bore you with the gory details but the weightage for Population, GDP & HDI were equal. If you need more clarification, revert back to me. 

The results are startling. I wasn't expecting what i saw. Check for yourselves.

What was i expecting? Southern states to be the victims of the system while UP & Bihar were the major beneficieries. But, i was astounded to see that Maharastra (16 lost seats), Gujarat (6 seats), Delhi (5 seats) and Harayana (4 seats) have been the losers. The only Southern Indian state that can harbour a grudge - Karnataka (robbed of 3 seats). AP & TN have a long way to catch up on HDI & GDP parameters with the rest of the country. 

What's more - UP & Bihar have been the greatest robbers. UP deserves no more than 66 seats while Bihar should receive only 29 seats. That's a reduction of 25 seats or 20.8% of their current quota.

Will our politicians agree to such an excercise, where the MP seats are decided by factors other than plain population? I am not going to hold my breath for that to happen.

Till then, let us enjoy the next episode of "Greatest robbery show"

My Vote is for sale - Part 1

I see nothing wrong in putting my vote for sale. In fact, i am thinking of writing an entire series of demands to the person seeking my vote.

The party that goes after money stolen in India and deposited outside gets my vote. So, here is what i want my party to do.

Step 1: Prepare a list of all countries that act as tax havens and publish it publically.

Step 2: Call the envoys/ambassadors of these nations for a meeting and give them an ultimatum. They have 3 months to produce a list of account holders and the amount stored in the banks in their countries.

Step 3: If the countries refuse, we ban these countries - economically & politically. All companies HQed in these tax havens will be refused license to operate in India. Citizens from these countries won't be allowed to travel to India and vice-versa. A complete black-out.

It is rumored that 700,00,00,00,00,000 (70 lakh crores!) - a full 162% of India's GDP of 43 lakh crores - is boarded outside India. Time to bring back the money.