Unsolicited advise to Jaganmohan Reddy

Hi.,

My condolonces to you & your family for this huge loss. While the state has lost it's CM, the loss for your family is huge. In these trying times, i apologize that i need to talk about politics when it might be the farthest in your mind.

The reason why i had to interrupt your mourning is the increasing clamour to make you CM. Believe me, most of them are following the true traditions of the Congress party or trying to take advantage of the situation. A novice CM who is out of place in regional politics isn't their nightmare but their dream come true. It need not be said that your CMship will be one of the most corrupt in state history, not because you want it that way, but because you would have no control over these ravaging lunatics.

You entered politics about 6 months ago. You have been elected MP. Can you state five things you have accomplished in these 4-5 months? Politics, unfortunately, is easier spoken than acted upon. I am not denying your way to the CM post, but asking you to mature beforing seeking it. Remember that this is the last time you will get the CM post handed on a platter, you need to earn it going forward. Are you ready & prepared for it?

Putting myself into your shoes, i would do the following. If you are keen on the CM post, consult with Sonia & Rahul on the path leading to the CM post. Consult Rahul on how he got educated on people's issues. Get a mandate from Sonia that you will succeed Rosiah whenever he is ready to give up the CM post. Ideally, he should occupy the chair for 2 years and hand over to you at mid term. Take these 2 years to tour the state, tracing the same steps as your father. Learn the issues of the farmers, traders, businessmen, salaried class, working women, housewives and all. Once you attain maturity, the post is as good as yours. Remember, politics is like a bank account, you can only draw what you put in. Frankly, my dear, you haven't put in much to date. Start investing and then encash at a latter stage. 

It is obvious that the support you have today will dwindle drastically as time flies, but you will be left with your core supporters and that's going to be your first lesson.

Regards

The real analysis on Indian Elections 2009

The TV talking heads have cooled off a bit on their instant analysis of Elections 2009. Several winners were announced by the TV heads and several losers. I intend to spend some time over the next month to analyze if the TV folks got it right or wrong.

But, one person whom they got it all wrong was Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar, and God knows how much i like him, didn't lead the NDA in Bihar because of good governance. He swept Bihar because of the split between Congress(I) and RJD. I analyzed the results of each of the 40 seats and this the summary table:

So, if you see this simple analysis - INC & RJD are losers because the monkey ate the cake while the cats fought over it. Even when you take only 80% of translation of INC votes to the RJD combine, the results is at least 2.5 times better than today. There's a lesson for Congress in this result table. Ignore Laloo if you want to write-off any chance of becoming big in Bihar.

Another trend that i noticed and that isn't obvious here, is the fact that BSP is nearing the 50,000 votes in 9 constituencies. That should worry the Congree, RJD and LJP.

In short, what do i recommend for the Congress in Bihar? I ask them to give Laloo a chance of joining Congress and becoming it's party chief in Bihar as well a cabinet minister in the current government. And why shouldn't that happen? Ideology-wise, there isn't a lot that seperates the Congress and RJD and Congress needs to spend more than a decade to become relevant again in Bihar. The easier route is to leverage the current result and add weight in states where it isn't strong. Also, inviting RJD to merge with Congress will also result in reverse-regionalization of political parties. Post-Congress, NCP and SP are the other candidates that will see a clear writing on the wall and they might want to join the re-join Congress. The public has clearly given it's mandate - national parties over regional parties and Congress has the golden opportunity of using this leverage. My sincere advise to Sonia & team - ask Laloo to join Congress before the feel-good feeling from election success evaporates! You won't regret taking my advise.

We have our priorities all right

We have our priorities all right .. thank you very much!

One more parliament session has passed and there seems to be an orphan left un-heeded on the road. Nope, make it two.

The Whistleblower's protection bill and the Women's Reservation Bill have not been passed. What a country!

A brief History: The Whistleblower's protection bill is the country's reflection, memories and respects to the late Satyendra Dubey - who lost his life due to the stupidity (at best or perverse at worst!) of officers in the PM's office. Three years later, the bill introduced in March '06 has not been passed yet.

It is surprising that the bill was not passed when 20 bills were cleared in the winter session of parliament on a single day!

Women's Reservation Bill was suggested in 1997. 9 years later, the country is still waiting. However, Arjun Singh (while i have worse names for him, you need to contact me to hear them!) had enough time to do a hotch-potch of a study for advancing reservations to OBCs.

While the OBC reservation bill awarded the communities seats in higher education & employment, the women's reservation bill does affect the way the parliament will be structured. No wonder, the male parliamentarians are up in arms to schuttle any of the feeble attempts made by the NDA and the UPA governments.

Now the parliament minister promises women's reservation bill in the budget session!

and we hope that these orphans can survive the harsh delhi winter cold and its muddy politics!

Some 'random' interesting links:
Home minister paying lip service to Women's reservation bill
Left wants it ... does not want it ... sorry, i dont know ... they just cant make up their mind.
Culprit 1A - Laloo (1B being Mulayam) now says that he will consider WRB. Did Rabri force this change, at home?
I am sorry that a person like Manmohan cannot aid us in this. All he can do, is to make promises that he cannot keep
One more Prime Minister - Vajpayee, one more promise. Once again unkept.
And the grand madam of all - her promise.